Projected lineup if everyone is healthy

NATS:

Just finished reading the commentary by Nats320
with regards to the projected starting lineup that was published by Bill Ladson on the official site. I gotta say I like the Nats320 batting order and I have to agree that if (wow that word is powerful, just like potential) the lineup performs to capabilities it could be an interesting offensive team.

There are a couple of points that I would like to make (although Nats320 has covered most of them very well). The only way I see Guzman working out at the #2 spot is if he hits like Jay Bell in 90/91. During those two years Bell had 39 and 30 sacrifice hits, many of them bunts to move the runner over for the 3/4/5 hitters. So if Guzman hits about .260 with a .330 OBP, 50 rbis and about 20-23 SB then he could actually work. The issue is the OBP and SB. He can hit .260 (theoretically as he has accomplished the feat four times) but he has a career OBP of .298. The year he hit .302 his OBP was only .337. It boggles my mind when players have such a low OBP, it is a glaring weakness and I don't understand how players don't work this day and night. It can extend a game and a career. In terms of the SB, he has not run much lately so who knows if he has the heart. My thought behind the SB is that he will need this to make up for the lack of punch when compare to Bell, who avg 11.5 HR and 60 rbi.

So lets assume that Guzman does not achieve this then I would agree with Nats320 and would insert Escobar / Johnson in this spot, with one twist. I think Escobar should be there for the start of the season (assuming he is healthy and Johnson is healthy, which he isn't). If and when Johnson does not make the opening day lineup then put Escobar down and Guzman in the #2. My reasoning behind Escobar being in the #2 earlier is to get him more at bats when rosters are still shaking out and pitchers are behind the hitters. I think this guy could have a big year but he has not been able to stay healthy and I think the added at bats could help build his confidence early in the season. After a 100 + then he could switch with Johnson, allowing Johnson to be on base for Zimmerman and Kearns, thereby taking advantage of that great OBP.

I can see where Ladson / Acta would want to put this order in, it takes advantage of the speed and base running ability of Guzman and allows Johnson/Escobar to stay lower in the order as run producers. The other side is that we don't end up having two automatic outs in the #8 & 9 slots. But if Guzman does not recover dramatically he'll become a rally killer, not something you want anytime! Especially this year as the offense is going to have to carry this team while our pitching develops.